Monday, September 13, 2010

Polls continue to show Democrat vulnerability

Seven weeks is a long time in politics, and seven weeks is a long time until the November mid-term election, but at this point things look bad for Democrats. Recent polls show potential voters prefer generic Republican candidates to generic Democrat candidates for the House of Representatives in their district.

Three surveys show Republicans with a significant lead, topping Democrats by five points, 42-37, in a Quinnipiac University Poll from August 31 through September 7.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll on September 1 and 2 reflects a seven-point margin for Republicans, 52–45.

The biggest margin turned up in the September 1 and 2 poll by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, with Republicans leading by a 46 to 37 margin.

In fact, the only poll showing a real contest during this polling period is Gallop, showing Democrats and Republican tied at 46 percent each.

However, two polls reflect a significant number of undecided voters that could turn either way, or could split along lines similar to decided voters. Quinnipiac shows 13 percent of voters undecided and CNN/Opinion Research shows that 18 percent are unsure.

Predictably, voter’s believe the performance of the US Congress is horrible.

Both ABC News/Washington Post and Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polls taken August 30 through September 2 show a high level of dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress, 72–25 and 70–22 respectively. And the dissatisfaction with Congress has 79 percent of respondents to the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll saying they favor term limits of Senators and Representatives.

And that dissatisfaction is much broader than just the performance of Congress. FOX News/Opinion Dynamics asked voters nationwide on September 1 and 2, "How satisfied are you with the way things are going in the country today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied?"

Only three percent said they were very satisfied and another three percent said they were somewhat satisfied, while 61 percent said they were not very satisfied or not at all satisfied. Once again, the number of voters that are unsure is important, with 36 percent not sure how they feel about the direction the country is taking.

Republicans have the opportunity to take the House, and even some observers say they can take the Senate. However, the GOP has a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and the national organization frequently seems to be as tone deaf as the Democrats to the messages being sent loud and clear by voters.

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